Treasury yields and the dollar fluctuated, while bullion erased an initial gain to trade as much as 0.6% lower. Swap traders boosted bets on a half-point Fed cut this month.
For gold traders, “the concern is that the Fed cuts 50 and it’s a one and done — that wouldn’t bode well for the gold market,” said Phil Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Traders are trying to determine “how many cuts we’re going see over what duration of time,” he said, adding that “gold needs to see continuous cuts” for the next leg up.
Fed officials have said they’re now more concerned about risks to the labor market than about inflation. With price pressures largely down from their pandemic peak, policymakers are expected to start cutting interest rates this month.
Bullion has surged more than 20% this year, supported by growing optimism the Fed will pivot to monetary easing
Immediately after the nonfarm payrolls report, New York Fed President John Williams said it is now appropriate for the central bank to reduce interest rates, given progress on lowering inflation and a cooling in the labor market.
Williams said there had been “significant progress” toward the Fed’s dual goals of maintaining stable prices and maximum employment and that the risks to achieving both have moved into “equipoise,” or a state of equilibrium.
While Williams said in a moderated discussion following his speech that he’d like to look at the data more closely, he noted the latest figures are “consistent with what we’ve been seeing — a slowing economy and a cooling off in the labor market.”
Bullion has surged more than 20% this year, supported by growing optimism the Fed will pivot to monetary easing. Robust over-the-counter purchases and strong haven demand due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have also helped the advance.
Spot gold was down 0.3% to $2,508.67 an ounce as of 10:21 a.m. in New York, after peaking at a record $2,531.75 in August. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed. Silver and palladium were lower, while platinum was flat.
(By Yvonne Yue Li)
