In his March 2024 report to subscribers, Fastmarkets senior analyst Andy Farida highlighted the dominant trend of relief rally in the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price movements in the first half of 2024. Farida discussed how the nickel price is expected to experience a relief rally with an upside target of $20,000 per tonne, following which it may decline again to test key support levels.
Farida’s report indicated that the 50 monthly moving average (MMA) at $19,658 per tonne would serve as solid overhead resistance in the second quarter of 2024. The report also mentioned longer-term downside targets, including the rising 100 MMA and the 1998 low UTL.
The analysis also indicated a potential bullish divergence in the medium term, with the nickel price likely to rebound to test key resistance levels. Farida emphasized the importance of monitoring the LME nickel price as it approaches the $20,000-per-tonne level, expecting fresh selling pressure to emerge.
The report took into account macroeconomic conditions, including dovish statements from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Chinese stimulus measures, which are expected to support the base metals market in the first half of 2024. However, concerns about high interest rates and the cost of living crisis may impact automotive sales in the second half of the year.
Overall, the report provided a comprehensive analysis of the current trends in the nickel market, emphasizing the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels for informed trading decisions. Readers were encouraged to use the insights from the report to inform their base metals strategy and take advantage of the market dynamics.
