The deployment of more nuclear power in Europe – potentially including up to 90 GW of small modular reactor capacity – would lead to a faster reduction in CO2 emissions, lower the costs of energy systems, lessen the bloc’s dependence on energy imports and bring greater security of supply, according to a report* by Brussels-based industry group Nucleareurope.
The report says that 150 GW of installed nuclear capacity in the EU by 2050 will save around 430 million tonnes of CO2, save €310bn ($338bn) in total energy system costs, reduce gas consumption by about 180 billion cubic metres and reduce dependence on hydrogen imports by up to 33%.
The study compares three potential scenarios for nuclear in Europe with potential capacity of 100 GW, 150 GW and 200 GW by 2025. The 100 GW scenario is reflective of a “business-as-usual” approach, while 150 GW is reflective of more ambitious policies and 200 GW of major policy changes that give nuclear a central place in the transition to net zero.
Current capacity is estimated at about 110 GW generated by 100 nuclear power reactors in 12 of the 27 EU member states.
The 100 GW scenario takes account of significant nuclear plant retirements, including 25 GW in France and around 7 GW in both Germany – which has already shut down all its nuclear plants – and Spain. Only 4 GW of new build nuclear is projected to be commissioned.
In the 150 GW and 200 GW scenarios, only 9 GW is projected to be retired by 2030, with the rest of the capacity being extended. Around 13 GW of new build capacity is projected to be commissioned.
The main difference between the scenarios by 2050 comes from potential small modular reactor development. Nucleareurope assumes 200 GW of nuclear capacity in the most ambitious scenario with the development of more than 90 GW of SMR capacity.
The development of SMR capacity is less ambitious in the other scenarios, with 15 GW in the 100 GW scenario and 51 GW in the 150 GW scenario.
Nucleareurope director-general Yves Desbazeille said Europe has three major challenges which it needs to find solutions for. They are: achieving net zero, ensuring security of supply and providing access to affordable energy.
“This report demonstrates how nuclear can help by ensuring a credible, secure and cost-efficient decarbonised energy mix whilst at the same time avoiding the lock-in of fossil fuels and CO2 emissions,” Desbazeille said.
“If the mobilisation is there, if there is a shift in policies, 150 GW is in reach. We believe it’s an achievable scenario,” he told NucNet.
* The report, Pathways to 2050 – the role of nuclear in a low-carbon Europe, was produced by consultancy Compass Lexecon on behalf of Nucleareurope. The report was originally published in 2018 and updated in 2021. The new version incorporates recent developments including the target set by a nuclear alliance of member states of 150 GW of installed nuclear capacity in the EU by 2050.
