The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forecasts a significant increase in global nuclear power capacity by 2050, with capacity potentially growing by 2.5 times current levels, according to its Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for The Period Up To 2050 report released on Monday (16 September).
The report found two scenarios for nuclear power growth. In the high case, global nuclear capacity is projected to rise from 372 GW in 2023 to 950 GW by 2050 (2.5 times), largely driven by expanding climate goals and energy security demands. In the low case, capacity would increase more modestly by 40% to 514 GW over the same period.
Small modular reactors (SMRs) are expected to play a role in future capacity expansion, potentially accounting for up to 24% of new nuclear capacity by 2050, the IAEA report said.
While nuclear power made up 9.2% of global electricity production in 2023 which reached about 28,4 TWh, the IAEA expects the share to rise slightly under its high scenario. However, the IAEA warned that the global energy mix remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with coal accounting for more than one-third of electricity production in 2023.
At the end of 2023*, 413 nuclear reactors were operational worldwide, with a total capacity of 371.5 GW, the IAEA said.
Additionally, 59 reactors with a combined capacity of 61.1 GW were under construction, and 25 reactors with a capacity of 21.3 GWwere in suspended operation.
Over the year, five new reactors (5 GW) were connected to the grid, while five reactors (6 GW) were retired. Construction also began on six new reactors, further expanding global nuclear capacity.
According to the IAEA, in 2023 the US was the number one producer of nuclear-powered electricity with about 779 TWh generated, followed by China with 406 TWh, and France with 323 TWh.
A figure showing electricity generation by country in 2023 in TWh. Courrtesy IAEA ‘Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for The Period Up To 2050’ report.
Growing Recognition of Nuclear Power
The IAEA report also highlighted both the challenges and opportunities for nuclear power, emphasising the need for supportive policies, investment in new technologies, and international collaboration to achieve long-term growth.
Additionally, the report said that retiring reactors and aging infrastructure will require strategic investments in new plants to offset expected retirements, with about 30% of reactors currently in operation for over 40 years.
The IAEA projections come as global energy demand continues to rise, driven by population growth, industrialisation, and the shift toward cleaner energy sources.
IAEA director general Rafael Grossi told the agency’s 2024 general conference in Vienna that about a quarter of clean energy produced in the world today comes from nuclear power.
“The new IAEA projections reflect increasing acknowledgement of nuclear power as a clean and secure energy supply, as well as increasing interest in SMRs to target both electric and non-electric applications to meet climate goals and foster sustainable development,” said Grossi.
“We have come a long way from not being recognised in international conferences, or even rejected,” Grossi said adding that a global consensus on accelerating nuclear energy reached at the COP28 UN climate conference in Dubai has shown that the situation has changed.
“We will be working with Azerbaijan [the host country] for COP29 where we expect to continue this very important effort,” he said.
*Data reported in other recent NucNet articles can differ as the IAEA report uses only 2023 data and reactor figures.
