Bullion’s rally and easing cost pressures have made assets more appealing, especially for those seeking to replace aging mines. Yet companies are signaling they’re wary of repeating errors made in a previous bull market when mega expansions left them with big debts and angry shareholders.
At an industry gathering in Colorado Springs this week, executives sought to show discipline by talking up the virtues of cutting debt, controlling costs and rewarding investors than the prospect of more M&A.
“There were some really stupid deals made last time around,” Ross J. Beaty, chairman of Equinox Gold Corp., said in an interview at the Denver Gold Forum. “Companies bought dumb stuff and were penalized for it.”
Equinox itself has drawn interest, receiving takeover offers since starting production at the new Greenstone project in Canada this year, Beaty said. He’s concerned about a hostile approach and warned that the $2.6 billion company is “certainly not for sale.”
There have been other efforts behind the scenes. Top producer Newmont Corp. in July said it got dozens of bids for assets it’s selling in North America and Africa, while Osisko said Gold Fields competed against other firms for the company.
Deal appetite has picked up as gold soared to successive records on the outlook for lower US interest rates, central-bank buying and haven demand. Inflationary pressures have eased in the past year, helping the industry keep costs in check, make more cash and boost share prices.
Still, ill-fated deals of the past are a reminder of the risks of overspending. After splashing out on big expansions that saddled companies with debt, generalist investors were spooked when the end of a bull run in prices more than a decade ago hurt balance sheets.
To entice investors, miners are trying to show that they won’t make a similar mistake this time.
Equinox plans to use profits to reduce debt it used to build its Greenstone mine. And B2Gold Corp. is focused on “returning as much as we can to shareholders by increasing cash flow and paying out a decent dividend,” chief executive officer Clive Johnson said in an interview at this week’s forum.
There has even been some criticism of recent deals from within the industry. Barrick Gold Corp. CEO Mark Bristow called Gold Fields’ deal for Osisko — which represented an almost 67% premium to the share price the day before it was announced — “concerning.”
“These are markers of exuberance in the market,” Bristow said, adding that he won’t pay any premiums for acquisitions. Unlike other senior rivals, his company hasn’t announced a major deal in recent years.
Deals offer a way to tap deposits that are incredibly hard to find. While copper and iron ore mines can last for decades, or even a century, most gold mines have a shorter life span.
“While consolidation is a good, healthy sign for the industry, you still have to see how the newly formed entity can execute,” said Wasif Latif, a portfolio manager at Sarmaya Partners. “History shows that, generally, mergers and acquisitions aren’t accretive over time.”
Latif favors investing in companies that show how they’ll control their costs and have a robust portfolio of projects they can build themselves.
“Energy companies also experienced the same pain after the last commodity cycle collapse, but they found religion,” he said. “They said, ‘Ok, we get it, we’re not going to just dig a hole whenever we see one.’ Some gold miners are still figuring that out.”
(By Jacob Lorinc)
