Palladium Surplus Forecasted by 2028, Recycled Supply Growth Crucial
A recent report by the London-based council predicts a potential surplus in the global palladium market by as much as 700,000 oz. by 2028, following a shortfall easing to around 200,000 oz. in 2025. However, this projection hinges on overcoming various challenges affecting the industry.
One of the key hurdles identified is the possibility of ICE vehicles being used for extended periods due to higher interest rates, alongside consumer skepticism towards electric vehicles. Tax changes in China and concerns regarding stolen converters fueling the recycling market add to the list of obstacles that need resolution to achieve the projected surplus.
The council warns that delays in addressing these issues could impede the expected growth in recycling supply, leading to more significant and persistent deficits, thereby influencing palladium prices upwards. The report emphasizes the importance of solving these obstacles promptly to prevent any setbacks in the industry’s progress.
Similarly, the platinum market is expected to remain in a deficit, driven by motorists holding onto ICE cars for longer periods due to high interest rates. Despite the challenges, platinum benefits from a diverse demand base and potential growth from the emerging hydrogen economy.
The council’s revised outlook extends the time frame for the palladium market to remain in deficit until 2026, citing recycling challenges as a significant factor. While automotive demand for palladium may see a slight decline, the shift towards hybrid vehicles and the substitution of palladium for platinum help offset the decrease. Ultimately, the growth in recycled supply chains will play a crucial role in balancing the palladium market and potentially driving it into surplus in the coming years.
